By CMR of Xiamen University
The examine group makes the next forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s progress will stay sturdy and succeed in 8.23 percentage, a rise of 0.43 percent issues in comparison with the former yr; even if there's inflation strain caused by international financial easing, serious inflation in China is not going to occur, and the shopper cost index (CPI) will stay at 3.11 percentage. moment, the expansion of imports and exports will rebound, however the alternate surplus will reduce additional. eventually, the proportion of funding in GDP will remain excessive within the brief time period as urbanization promotes the expansion of fastened resources funding, although larger consistent with capita earning will lead to excessive and regular consumption.
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Additional info for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2013
2 % of IMF, and respectively. This report happens to match my expectation. On the other hand, in my opinion, it is rather difficult to double per capita real income until 2020. Although the goal of doubling GDP and real resident income per capita is put forward in the report of the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it should be very difficult to realize these two “doubles” in the next 8 years, especially to double the real resident income per capita, which means that the economy must maintain an annual growth of at least 6 % on average in the 7 years.
In the first scenario, we assumes that GDP remained unchanged, and the decreased part of the government fiscal revenue could be transferred to urban and rural residents equally to increase their income through some mechanisms, such as tax-cuts or transfer payments, from 2007 to 2012. 08 percentage points on average. 49 percentage points; the growth of exports would decline and the growth of import would increase, with a slightly negative net effect on the net exports. Therefore, 1 percentage point decrease in the growth rate of the government fiscal revenue would not undermine economic growth.
Therefore, the main cause of the imbalance in the national economy and income distribution is that the government revenue grew too fast, which also undermined the improvement of resident income as well as their consumption. In addition, because the evaluation system of local government’s achievement stress on the GDP growth too much, the local governments have the incentive to promote economic growth by investment, which are the fundamental obstacles for the structural improvement of the aggregate demand.