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Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas by Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten

By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson

Uncertainty research is a key element of nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised via the authors during this quantity, and the position that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. assurance contains: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock ways, compliance and verification concerns, and the position of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.

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Additional resources for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading

Example text

Further detailed analysis of this source sector and especially an elucidation of the processes leading to the emissions will help to further decrease inventory uncertainty or at least motivate inventory compilers to use the same assumptions for assessing uncertainty. Still, one must not expect uncertainty to completely disappear. While the uncertainty of an emission factor (perfectly describing the processes) is considered equally applicable to different years and does not affect the trend analysis (full correlation), the uncertainty of the activity number is considered independent.

Emissions . greenhouse gas . inventory . Kyoto Protocol . trading ratio . uncertainty . uncertainty analysis . 2 As another example, Monte Carlo-type analysis, which relies on quantified uncertainty estimates for inventories and other data, is used by the research community to project climate and economic outcomes, and to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes under alternative policy scenarios. Finally, the process of investigating the causes and magnitude of uncertainties in a GHG emissions inventory can also provide information useful for reducing the uncertainty of the inventory itself.

They also provide an incentive for countries to reduce the uncertainty of their emissions estimates over time, in order to reduce the magnitude of the adjustment and so move estimated emissions closer to the nominal commitment level. Which approach is more stringent? 04 a Emission reductions for compliance assumed to be 7% below baseline level. b Confidence that actual emission reductions equal at least 90% of estimated reductions. , 1998 (in Table 1) is the same as the uncertainty of the emission reductions (in Table 2), then the fractional adjustments are much larger under Definition 1 (in Table 1) than under Definition 2 (Table 2), because in the former case the definition focuses on the absolute level of emissions, which is a much larger number than the absolute reduction in emissions (the focus of the latter definition).

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